For weeks New Orleans Director of Health Dr. Jennifer Avegno has warned that if the city’s percent positivity rate goes above 5 percent, it would trigger renewed state-enforced restrictions. We have reached that rate.
Avegno told reporters during a Thursday morning press conference that the Louisiana department of health has listed Orleans Parish’s percent positivity rate at 5.2 percent for the week of Nov. 26 to Dec. 2. The percent positivity rate in neighboring Jefferson Parish was 11.2 for the same week.
“All of the key numbers that describe our current outbreak are above what we have set as safe thresholds,” Avegno said. “We are currently seeing an average of around four to five times the number of cases daily that we were a month ago.”
Unless Orleans Parish can reduce that positivity rate to below 5 percent by Dec. 16, the state-directed restrictions will take effect. That includes banning indoor service at bars and restricting indoor gatherings to 25 people or less.
The Dec. 20 New Orleans Saints’ game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome will now welcome 3,000 fans instead of the planned 15,000 fans, given that the city’s average number of cases per day has risen above 100.
Avegno said that the current rate of transmission, which measures how many people one person can infect, is above one.
“When the rate of transmission goes above one, the potential for explosive growth is real and can overwhelm systems and communities very quickly.” she said.
The rate of transmission six weeks ago was .95 and the daily number of infections was 31. Yesterday, the daily number of cases was 121. If the rate of transmission stays at 1.1, where it is now, the daily number of cases in four weeks could be more than 700.
Avegno said hospital capacity is currently at 70 percent and hospitals may soon need to pause elective surgeries, as they did in July.
Avegno was joined by an emergency nurse at University Medical Center and a New Orleans EMS provider, who spoke about the impact that the virus is having on them, their co-workers, and the facilities they work in.
“Our nurses and health care providers are experiencing fatigue, mental stress [and] physical stress,” the nurse said. “Nurse numbers are diminishing.”
All three pleaded with the public to adhere to the CDC guidelines — wearing masks, socially distancing at 6 feet apart, and frequently washing hands — to stop the spread.
“Every life is important and it’s essential. Let’s just do what we must do now to save our community and save our people,” the nurse added.
