TV Weather Gets Heated. In a world where weather is getting more extreme, the role of meteorologists is becoming more important—and controversial—than ever. Meteorologists have been fired over reporting on climate change, and others have left stations because of death threats.
But that hasn’t stopped Jeff Berardelli, Chief Meteorologist for Tampa Bay’s WFLA News. He’s leaning in. In this episode, Jeff Berardelli tells Carlyle what it’s like to be a weatherman in the time of climate change. And answers questions like: why do certain spots get hit by more hurricanes? And what do changing weather patterns fueled by climate change mean for our favorite olive oil?
This episode was hosted and reported by Carlyle Calhoun Despeaux and cohosted by Halle Parker. Johanna Zorn edited this episode. Our sound designer is Emily Jankowski and our theme music is by Jon Batiste. Our managing producer is Carlyle Calhoun Despeaux.
Sea Change is a WWNO and WRKF production. We are part of the NPR Podcast Network and distributed by PRX. To help others find our podcast, hit subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
Sea Change is made possible with major support from the Gulf Research Program of the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. WWNO’s Coastal Desk is supported by the Walton Family Foundation, the Meraux Foundation, and the Greater New Orleans Foundation.
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TRANSCRIPT
HALLE: A huge sign on a Louisiana highway last week read: “Mr. Cantore, don’t even think about coming here.”
CARLYLE: That would be Jim Cantore, probably our country’s most famous meteorologist. He’s the Weather Channel guy you always see standing in the most insane conditions. Talking calmly as he gets pelted by rain and knocked sideways by wind.
HALLE: And, if Jim is in town, you know that’s bad news.
Jim Cantore Weather Channel Clip:
“But I mean look at this thing, it’s like a washtub right now. Onshore wind, waves crashing. Winds at 50 mph but obviously it’s going to get a lot worse with Francine coming. .. power outages will mount and there is going to be a whole lot of rain…get ready, power’s going out tonight.”
HALLE: Jim Cantore came to Louisiana because Hurricane Francine came to Louisiana. In the days before, people were glued to their screens watching every update from local meteorologists.
CARLYLE: Perhaps like a lot of places with a history of extreme weather, meteorologists are like celebrities in New Orleans.
News Clip:
“The parade starts at 7. And such a big deal…our very own chief meteorologist Margaret Orr is the honorary Muse..this is like being the Grand Marshall of that super krewe. So exciting!”
HALLE: That is a news clip from Mardi Gras earlier this year…A float was designed just to honor one the city’s most popular meteorologists, Margaret Orr, when she retired.
CARLYLE: I saw her in the grocery store once and I was genuinely starstruck.
HALLE: Well, yeah, I mean people do have a special relationship with our TV weathercasters…Even in these days of weather apps, where we can get every detail of the forecast on our phones, we turn to those familiar faces when things are looking dicey.
CARLYLE: Maybe it's something about that personal touch local weather forecasters add…because polls say the people delivering our nightly weather reports are actually the most trusted journalists in the field.
PIVOT
HALLE: And now more of them are taking on the role of reporting on climate change as part of their nightly weather reports. Connecting the dots for their audiences between our more extreme weather and climate change.
CARLYLE: But the reaction has been mixed.
Excerpts from Yale Climate Connections video
“I was approached by a station in Des Moines Iowa, and I made it clear to them that I make connections to climate change…There are more conservative stations than Iowa, but the pushback I’m getting almost doesn’t add up. From threats to telling station management they aren’t going to watch the station anymore.”
“And because it’s become so politicized, it’s become taboo and even dangerous for meteorologists across the country to talk about it. “
CARLYLE: That is from a video produced by Yale Climate Connections about the challenges facing meteorologists who are talking about climate change as part of their weather reports. Some meteorologists have been fired over it .. Others have left b/c of death threats
HALLE: But that hasn’t stopped Jeff Berardelli, Chief Meteorologist for Tampa Bay’s WFLA News. He’s leaning in.
TAPEJeff Berardelli –
“I have an obligation to be honest with people, you know, not just as a scientist, but as a journalist. That's my job. I'm not going to pull the wool over people's eyes because it maybe feels better to them.”
HALLE: Jeff has no doubts about it. In a world where weather is getting more extreme, the role of meteorologists is becoming more important than ever.
CARLYLE; I’m Carlyle Calhoun
HALLE; And I’m Halle Parker and you’re listening to Sea Change.
Today … Jeff Berardelli tells Carlyle what it’s like to be a weatherman in the time of climate change. And answers questions like: why do certain spots get hit by more hurricanes? And what changing weather patterns fueled by climate change mean for our favorite olive oil?
That’s coming up next.
INTERVIEW
Carlyle: Hi, Jeff. Thanks so much for being here.
Jeff: Glad to be here.
Carlyle: So you've been a TV meteorologist for around 25 years. You've worked in Miami, West Palm Beach, at CBS News in New York City, and you're now at WFLA News in Tampa Bay.
At some point in there, you decided you wanted to focus on climate change communication as part of your job as a meteorologist. You even went back to school at Columbia University to study climate and society. Was there a specific moment when you realized you wanted to really focus on the connections between climate change and weather?
Jeff: Just, I saw as a meteorologist a lot of big changes on my weather maps and a lot of clues in nature that, you know, things were changing fast, faster than they've changed in modern history. And I just thought the National Media was ignoring it. So at that point I started to take it on as, um, something that I thought was my responsibility because I was kind of in the best place to do it. Right. I'm a TV meteorologist. I have the background, the science background. I also have the platform to inform people. I think I have a responsibility to inform people because I work for TV news. And, um, you know, there's lots of things I can't do, but the one thing I can do is communicate science.
Carlyle: Were you experiencing weather personally in a different way? Like were you seeing more flooding? Were there specific changes that you were noticing, having lived in Florida for a while that kind of pushed you in this direction?
Jeff: Well, mostly I was seeing these big changes on my weather maps. Not that I wasn't experiencing it. Specifically, even before I arrived in West Palm Beach, I worked in Miami and I lived in South Beach and I lived right in, you know, ground zero, uh, where, uh, we had a lot of that saltwater flooding from the Atlantic Ocean.
It was seeping in. in from the ground because the aquifer is so close to the surface. Uh, it's like Swiss cheese, the bottom of the ground in Miami beach. So anyway, uh, I lived, I mean, not only did I live on South beach, I lived in probably the most flood prone part of South beach. So I was constantly driving through water that was a foot or more in depth.
It was happening very often. And I watched Miami beach, uh, combat this. They actually spent, uh, about 600 million Um, and I'm sure it's been more than that by now, uh, to raise the streets around two plus feet and install pumps all over Miami beach, I watched them as they did it and it helped a lot.
You know, stopping climate change is completely different, but at least Miami Beach took the steps it needed to survive for another 30, 40 years.
Carlyle: Mm hmm. And I was thinking about this, you know,, in preparation for talking with you, , you're talking about seeing these big weather patterns that you see.Pattern changes. But weather's also really personal, right? Like there's a reason why you often chat about weather when you're in line at the grocery store. Let's say it's it is a shared experience, and we can usually agree about the weather, at the same time discussing climate change issues. Can get political.
So how do you think about this deep connection people have with the weather? And then how do you approach the challenge of maintaining your viewer trust when you're discussing climate change?
Jeff: Well, first of all, um, I understand that it has been made political, but I refuse to accept the fact that science can be political. Science is science. So the truth is, is I just drive straight through the hoop.
I have, you know, essentially science that I have to report on, and I'm just honest about it. So to me it doesn't matter what a person's opinion is, on, um, you know, whether or not they like climate change or they don't like it or politically is inconvenient for them or it, you know, none of that matters to me. The only thing that matters is that I’m being honest with my viewers.
CARLYLE: Yeah, I mean, that's Of course makes sense. at the same time, you're, you're kind of one of the few meteorologists really leaning into connecting the dots between climate change and how our weather patterns are changing. So why do you think that is?
JEFF: I do think that there are more meteorologists than ever now that are communicating it. But you're right, there's definitely, um, a resistance among some meteorologists to talk about it. And you know, they're afraid. They're afraid they're going to lose their jobs. They're afraid they're going to get in trouble.
They're afraid that viewers are going to revolt against them. And really a lot of it depends upon where they're living, right? Um, I live in a purple area. It's not very, um, red. It's not very blue. Um, and of course I've gotten pushback on my communication, uh, but, um, but yes, it's, it's more difficult in certain places.
And I also think that, you know, meteorologists are cognizant that they have bosses and their bosses may not always, you know, want to understand or, you know, Uh, comprehend climate change. So I, you know, they're legitimately concerned that it may, um, it may compromise their careers in some way.
Carlyle: Finding the weather as something we can agree on. Maybe you as a meteorologist have a really special role in kind of making these connecting the dots for people.
Jeff: Well, I think we're honestly one of the few people who's truly qualified to do this. I mean, what I mean is, We truly have the science background. Not only is it a science background, it's specific to atmospheric sciences, right? At the same standpoint, we know how to communicate. It's not just about having a platform. It's knowing how to resonate with people, how to communicate with them.
So I just think it's, You know, if it's not going to be us, then who is it going to be? You know, so, and, and, and with that in mind, if not me, then who else? And that's kind of the way I look at it.
Carlyle: Yeah, and you've really, taken that role to heart and you're really busy in your role.You've got a YouTube show. It's called Jeff's Climate Classroom that goes deep into explaining the inner workings of climate and extreme weather. So let's talk about some climate and weather connections.
And let's talk about the region we both live in, which is the southeast of the United States and specifically the Gulf Coast. So , as you particularly know, we are facing specific challenges here. We have the fastest sea level rise in the country. We have increasingly humid temperatures and we're experiencing more extreme rainfall.
Can you explain why we're experiencing these intense changes here? And, and maybe we could take them one at a time.
Jeff: Uh, I think a lot of it's related to the same thing because obviously of climate change, but regionally the Gulf of Mexico is warming faster than the average of the oceans. Um, we're seeing a slowdown of the ocean circulation, the AMOC, which I believe is probably causing a little bit of extra increase in our sea level rise in the Gulf of Mexico.
Plus, remember, warm water expands, and so that in itself is adding more, um, inches to sea level rise in the Gulf than on average other places around the Earth. When I say that the current, I'll go back to that, but the current is slowing down, the Gulf Stream's slowing down, well, it's really the AMOC, which is, you know, was the focus of my last climate classroom, um, which is, uh, essentially the ocean conveyor belt.
And think about it, if it, if the transport of water into the North Atlantic is slowing, That means there's a backup of water behind it. And so there's lots of reasons why the Gulf of Mexico is, you know, increasing its sea level a little bit faster than the rest of the planet. But, um, it can start with warming and that's, and that's what we're seeing across the Gulf.
And then, you know, Adding to that, if the Gulf of Mexico is not only increasing its sea level more, but it's also warming faster, then it's increasing the humidity more in places like Tampa and in New Orleans. And so because of that, we're seeing our humidity go up, or our dew points go up, faster.
Uh, and, uh, our discomfort. Uh, there's a new thing called wet bulb globe temperature. It's not new. It's been around a long time, but people are talking about it now. It's a horrible name. We need to come up with something better. Uh, but, you know, there was a recent study and I interviewed, um, the lead scientist from this study, uh, on my show within the last couple of weeks.
And, uh, there's only really one place that is seeing this wet bulb globe temperature. Essentially it's kind of a heat index. There's only one place that's seeing a heat index go up faster than Tampa, and it's New Orleans. So again, it's all related to the Gulf. The faster the Gulf warms, uh, the warmer it is, especially in the mornings. And the more humid it is, and it also increases the extreme precipitation in and around the Gulf Coast as well. So it's all related.
Carlyle: It's and, and the, the wet bulb heat index you were just talking about. It's getting a lot of attention because it's dangerous for humans, right? Like the more humid it is, it's harder for us to sweat, which is how we cool down.
So is that why there's, there's particular, attention? I mean, this is a real threat going forward, right?
Jeff: Yeah, it is a real threat. And yes, we're seeing. A lot more of these unbearable days where it becomes dangerous for human health, and that's only going to increase. Now, the first place that's going to become, they say, uninhabitable, I mean, that just depends upon whether or not people can adapt to this type of heat in, in the first place that's going to become uninhabitable will be places in and around the Mediterranean, especially on the East side, around the Middle East.
Um, we will, we will follow from there in places like New Orleans and Tampa. Um, you know, a little further down the road where we'll, we'll start to pile up the unbearable, uncomfortable, and maybe very dangerous, or even deadly days that will happen in the coming decades.
The bottom line is it becomes, it gets to a point where either we're all just inside of our air conditioning all day. Uh, or especially during the middle of the afternoon or some of us venture outside and it proves to be You know sickening if not deadly.
Carlyle: I mean, this is what we're all experiencing.We know it's, you know, it's still hot when we go outside at night. We know that, um, you know, last year was the hottest year on record and recent study by your alma mater, Columbia University, that found that the Southeast has experienced a 40 percent increase in precipitation, over the last 124 years.So are these the changes, these big changes that, that you're looking at and, and concerned about?.
Jeff: yes, as a meteorologist, I'm concerned about the stronger hurricanes, the higher sea level, the hotter temperatures, the heavier rain events, which cause flooding, you know, but I think about it in, okay, what does that mean? Well, it means that we can't afford insurance anymore, or that insurance just simply doesn't exist anymore. And if insurance has a hard time existing in the future, how do people get mortgages?
Well, that means that, you know, only the really rich people, the people have a lot of money in the bank can buy homes because since you can't get a mortgage, only, you can only pay with cash. And so that becomes a big stress on society. FEMA runs out of money because they can't pay for the disasters anymore.
Um, people can't get the relief and, and get their homes repaired because they don't have all the funds. They need help from the government, which is stressed because instead of there being 10 huge disasters a year, there's 20. Um, and that obviously becomes global because some areas become uninhabitable.
We have, we end up having major crop losses. I'll give you one selfish example because I'm Italian and I love olive oil. Well, they're having a major problem making olive oil in Italy and it's starting to spread through Southern Europe. So all of a sudden olive oil costs twice as much as it used to. Now I'm not saying it does cost twice as much, but certainly prices have gone up and some of that is climate change.
So, you know, that's just one example of how it not only hits our wallets, but it hits our bread baskets. Um, and more of that's going to happen. So these shocks to the agricultural system means that people can't make a living in the way that they used to across Central America and across the Mediterranean and, and at some point across parts of the United States.
And that causes conflict, global conflict. You have to pay more for goods. Certain countries get the good, certain don't. Then you have to worry about sea level rise where You know, people are no, no longer can live in the places where they lived before because it's uninhabitable. Let's say it's three or four decades from now and people are moving and they're migrating and it's causing more political instability.
So what I worry about is the less so the specific days where it's too hot or the specific hurricane that's a little stronger. It's all those things combined, which lead to destabilization and conflict around the world.
Carlyle: And, and you brought up hurricanes and we know, you know, bad hurricanes is definitely something that causes migration and people to have to leave certain areas. So we are in the middle of hurricane season right now, and NOAA predicted an alarming number of strong storms for this year. Can you explain how climate change is related to worsening hurricanes?
Jeff: Yeah, so the jury is still out on how this year is going to turn out. Um, sometimes long term predictions work out, sometimes they don't. But over the long haul, over decades, we've already seen an increase in rapid intensification of storms. Uh, and also a storm's ability to become a major hurricane in the Atlantic. For instance, uh, a storm, just a run of the mill, you know, low end hurricane, let's say a Cat 1 or a Cat 2, Is now twice as likely to become a major hurricane than it was back in, let's say, the 1970s and 80s. Now, the problem with that is that major hurricanes cause a lot more damage than low end hurricanes. In fact, and this is going to be interesting for your listeners, let's compare two hurricanes:
A hurricane with winds of 75 miles an hour, and a hurricane with winds of 150 miles an hour. You might think that the storm with winds of 150 miles an hour causes two times more damage. Or maybe, if you are good at math, maybe you think it's four times. And maybe you think, well, it's probably eight times.
But it's none of those. It's 250 times more damage.
Carlyle: Oh my gosh.
Jeff: Yeah. But let's talk about it, because it makes logical sense once we talk about it. Yeah. So think about this. If let's say you have a wind of 75 miles an hour hitting your home, how much damage is that really going to do?
Carlyle: It's probably, I mean, not extreme. Most houses are probably, probably regulations, have some sort of threshold that houses need to be built to withstand.
Jeff: That's right. So you might lose a couple of shingles on your house. Maybe you'll lose a couple of tiles on the roof. Maybe a tree will fall and hit your house and it'll cause some roof damage.
But think about what happens when the winds are 150 miles an hour. Now the whole house is gone, or at least severely compromised to the point where it's just better to, you know, destroy the house and just build from the ground up. So instead of suffering one or 2, 000 of damage, because you lose some shingles or tiles on your roof, now, all of a sudden your winds are 150 miles an hour. You have to build a whole new home. Now it's hundreds of thousands of dollars. So you can easily see how the wind damage and, and actually this, this applies to storm surge too, obviously, because, you know, you see a lot more storm surge with a Cat, you know, four or five than you would with a cat one or two.
So now you have 250 times worth of damage. Well, You know, in the case of warmer water temperatures, let's say your water temperatures are around three degrees Fahrenheit warmer because of climate change, which they basically are almost. It's closer to two, but some cases it's three. Well now, instead of your hurricane potential being 150 miles an hour, your hurricane potential is 180 miles an hour.
And believe me when I tell you the difference between 150 and 180 mile an hour winds is not just two, three, four, 10 times the amount of damage. It's a whole lot more than that.
And, and that, and think about the, um, the insurance premiums and the amount of damage costs. I mean, that's disruptive and destabilizing to a society. And we are likely to see more of those in the future. Those stronger storms.
Carlyle: Yeah. And just in talking about the amount of precipitation and how that's changing too. I mean, Hurricane Debbie just went through. Can you talk about how these hurricanes are also just releasing more rain and how, how climate change is related , to just the intense amount of rain that we're seeing with some of these slow moving storms?.
Jeff: So it's a pretty simple calculation that we do for every two degree increase in air temperature, two degrees Fahrenheit. Uh, we get about an 8 percent increase in the capacity of moisture in the atmosphere. But when it comes to hurricanes, they're really efficient rain producers. So not only does it have more moisture to rain out, it also has the capacity to be a stronger storm. With stronger thunderstorms in its core and produce higher rainfall rates.
I was talking to one of the world's foremost experts about Debbie when it came through our area and I asked him, how much extra rain do you think Debbie produced because of climate change?
He said his best estimate is probably about 40 percent extra rain in Debbie.
In the heaviest bands due to climate change, 40%. Now he said it could be between 20 and 50%. Think about how many more homes flood You know, so much of, of Harvey's damage could have been avoided if it weren't for climate change.
So your costs are not just going up by a small percentage. In some cases, you could see your costs double.
Carlyle: Yeah, yeah. And you're actually involved in studies about hurricanes. You just did a study with Columbia University and I found this really interesting. you're looking at the question of whether hurricanes really do favor hitting certain spots. And I believe this may have started with kind of your curiosity about Tampa Bay, which, has dodged a lot of big hurricanes. And you wanted to know, is Tampa Bay just lucky? Can you talk about what that study found?
Jeff: Yeah, I mean, I guess it wasn't a surprise. Um, we were just trying to figure out if we've been lucky because we haven't hit. We haven't been hit by a major hurricane directly here on about 100 years by a Cat three or greater.
And you know, one thing we know as meteorologists is that it's hard for storms to turn the way they need to to get to Tampa Bay. A lot of storms will move through the Gulf and just head straight north if there's nothing to steer them, and they'll head towards New Orleans. Unfortunately, you guys are like a catcher's mitt to hurricanes.
Um, or the storm has some westerly wind steering it and it makes a very quick turn and hits Fort Myers or hits the Florida Keys and South Florida. So it kind of is an either or in many cases, it either just keeps going north or it makes a sharp turn to the east. It's very hard for it to make a perfect turn to hit Tampa. And so coastal geography really helps us. And it's true on the east coast of Florida to from about Cape Canaveral all the way up to Savannah, Georgia. That part of the coast near Jacksonville kind of sneaks in a little bit. It goes in and because of that, it's hard for hurricanes to hit there.
And, uh, we found through this study that it turns out that that's just normal for Tampa. We haven't been lucky. We just usually only get hit by a major hurricane every hundred plus years. But, and we can talk about this next, I decided to take that study to the next level this year.
And I partnered with the Department of Energy to localize a study that they did last spring, which found that we're going to see an increasing incidence of hurricanes on the southeast coast, including the Gulf Coast. So this year we decided to look at the numbers and talk about how later this century, so second half of the century, how our incidence of hurricanes would change across the Gulf Coast.
And I looked at Houston. I looked at New Orleans, I looked at Tampa, I looked at Fort Myers, I looked at Miami, and I looked at Charleston. And in every single one of these locations, we saw an increase in incidence of hurricanes. And we saw especially a big increase in the incidence of major hurricanes. Uh, and it's especially true in Florida, even more so than it is in New Orleans and in Houston.
Now, of course, we have some agency here, right? If humanity decides to truly combat the climate crisis, and reel in our increase of heat trapping greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels, then we actually probably will see much less of an increase. in the incidence of hurricanes and major hurricanes. It's still going to increase, but just not as much. So we do have some control over that.
Carlyle: Yeah, that kind of gets me to a question. I mean, I guess having these kinds of models that you can look at and thinking about the fact that we as humans do have agency over future weather patterns, can you talk about like how you view, Your role as a meteorologist, potentially evolving as the impacts of climate change worse. And like, are you thinking about communicating? Look, we're, we're seeing this, we could see this, but if we lower emissions, you know, we won't be experiencing as bad an impact. So are you, are you thinking about kind of how meteorologists can communicate that?
Jeff: it's a tough one. I have already done it to some degree. Um, and when I do release this study, and I haven't released it yet, I'll put it on the air probably in the next few weeks. And when I do, I'm going to be very explicit and tell people, look, this is our future if we don't reduce our emissions. If we do reduce our emissions, there's a good chance that the impacts will be a lot less.
So I, I already communicate that, although I will say that I, I don't tell people what to do because people don't like to be told what to do. If you tell someone to eat less steak, you can be pretty sure they're going to order a really big steak that night. You know, if you tell people not to drive a big gas guzzling car, you can be pretty sure that they're going to buy a nice big gas guzzling car.
You know, if you tell them not to use a gas stove, you can be pretty sure they're going to buy a gas stove. I personally don't eat meat. I personally drive a plug in hybrid car. I personally live in a condo. I don't live in a house. So I take up a little less space, meaning, you know, I've less, I have more energy efficiency because I don't have to, you know, air condition a whole big, big space.
So I do the things that I can do, but not everybody's willing to do that. And I wouldn't expect them to be, I would just say, do what you're best equipped to do. Whatever that is, find your specific way of helping with climate change, and I'm not going to tell anyone what to do, because it usually backfires.
Carlyle: yes, I hear you on that and I think at the same time , I think people want to continue living where they love living. People wouldn't want to continue living by the water if that's what they love. And I think we're seeing, you know, with sea levels rise and with worsening hurricanes that our actions as humans are impacting our ability to do what we want.
Jeff: Yeah, that's definitely true. You know, look, it's a fine line. I think until the political atmosphere shifts to where people are like, okay, I got it. We're having a big impact here. You know, maybe it's this generation. Maybe it's our kids, you know, I have a two and a half year old. Maybe it's, hopefully it's not just her generation, but the generation that came before her.
So the kids that are 17, 18, you know, getting to be adults right now. and I think they understand it better. And we can't afford to waste time. It's true, I don't think we'll have to deal with this 10 or 20 years from now, but I think this is just the atmosphere we're in right now. I think once this atmosphere breaks, this anger, this about the inconvenience of climate change but it is a generational shift, right?
I think we used to think when we were young, Oh, we can just, let's just change. Turns out it takes generations sometimes, and climate change doesn't really have generations. I get it. So we're going to have to deal, unfortunately, with some pretty negative impacts of climate change. Um, I don't think we're going to be able to avoid that.
But, you know, what do they say? What's that saying? You know, the best time to change was yesterday. The second best time is today, you know? Unfortunately we're stuck in a bit of a rut right now, but I do think we're, we're turning the corner and I do think that, you know, the younger generations understand it. And I, I think it'll be easier to move forward a little more boldly soon.
Carlyle: Something I want to ask you about is tipping points. We hear that term a lot with climate change, and I was hoping you would explain what some of those big climate tipping points are , and can we still avoid crossing them.
Jeff: Yeah, in some cases, I think we can. The problem is, first of all, it's very hard to figure out when you're getting to a tipping point. In fact, sometimes you don't know you've crossed a tipping point until you've already crossed it. Um, so let me give you a couple examples. Uh, one of them is the Amazon rainforest.
Uh, they don't believe that we've reached a tipping point in most of the Amazon yet. But basically, the more you burn the Amazon, uh, the warmer it gets there, the more it dries out the Amazon. Now, the Amazon produces its own rain because there's so much evapotranspiration, or essentially evaporation of the really moist ground and really moist trees, releasing all that moisture into the atmosphere, forming their own clouds.
And then raining back down on the forest. So essentially the forest is amazing, right? It creates its own rainfall and climate, but if you burn so many trees that you no longer have the ability to evaporate that water back into the atmosphere, well, all of a sudden. You inhibit the Amazon's ability to create its own rain, you dry it out, it turns into a savanna, it's no longer a rainforest.
That's one example. Another example is Antarctica. We're worried about West Antarctica, especially, and some of the big glaciers there. Some scientists say that we probably have already crossed a tipping point, but a tipping point just means that no matter what we do, part of the, the, the glaciers in Antarctica are going to crumble and fall into the ocean.
It doesn't mean it's going to happen tomorrow though. Just because we cross a tipping point today doesn't mean they're, they're crumbling and falling into the ocean tomorrow. They won't. It means that we've set in motion this boulder that's on top of the mountain that's already going down the mountain.
It's starting to roll and we're not going to be able to stand in front of it. It's going to roll. What we don't want to do at this point is stand behind it and push it because then it rolls down faster and it impacts us in the next couple of decades rather than the next couple of centuries. Eventually You know, and whether or not we've passed that tipping point for, let's say, the part of the Antarctic ice sheet, I think it's still somewhat debatable, but more and more scientists are saying, yeah, we probably are crossing it now or have crossed it.
But it doesn't mean that we're going to see, you know, all that sea level rise in this century. A lot of it's going to come in next century. Still, you know, for our grandchildren, and to some degree our children, depending on how old our children are, uh, we'll probably have to deal with that, uh, later in the century.
So that's just another example. And then one last one is the, uh, AMOC, the AMOC, which is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. We talked about it earlier in the broadcast. So that is, um, has slowed down about 15 percent in the past 40 years or 50 years. Um, and, uh, it used to be that our computer model said that it was probably going to collapse. If it collapsed, it wouldn't happen until next century, the century after. And that was just as short as five, 10 years ago. Well, now all of a sudden, a number of studies have come out over the past few years that say, Oh, our computers now think that there's a good chance it may collapse this century.
Carlyle: And yet there’s still the ability to either slow down the impacts or to avoid that tipping point all together.
Jeff: For sure, and what's amazing about it is that we found that the moment we stop emitting carbon dioxide and our emissions essentially go to net zero, at that moment, warming stops almost immediately within a couple of years to a few years.
Now, it doesn't mean there'll still be some inertia in the climate system. We'll still melt the glaciers because the waters have warmed tremendously and that warmth in the oceans will be circulating around for hundreds, if not over a thousand years. So, that's not going to stop sea levels from rising, but they'll rise less slowly.
But it is going to slow how extreme the weather gets. It is going to make it less hot, uh, or not, not quite as hot as it could end up being, you know, decades from now. So we can have a real impact on not only decreasing the impacts of climate change, but the instability in our societies that it creates.
So we do still have agency here. We can affect change. We really can.
Carlyle: Yeah. And last question: you're focused on some really intense science and, thinking about, you know, impacts to human populations and where we're going to be able to grow food and people going hungry and all this kind of stuff. How do you stay motivated and inspired to do what you do every day?
Jeff: Um, that's a good question. I guess the traditional answer would be, you know, I have a daughter. She's two and a half. I'm very concerned about her future. And that is true. I am, but I possessed this motivation before I had a daughter. Um, you know, what it comes back to is responsibility.
I think every human has a responsibility to help humanity and to hopefully lead this world slightly better than when they came. So I am here every day fighting for the world because I feel like I've been given, I've drawn a good card from the deck of cards and I think I should do my best to make sure everybody else has a chance at drawing a good card. That's all.
Carlyle: Yeah. Well, Jeff, thank you for your work and thank you for this conversation. It's, it's been really fascinating.
Jeff: You're welcome. My pleasure.
OUTRO
Thanks for listening to Sea Change! This episode was hosted and reported by Carlyle Calhoun and cohosted by me Halle Parker. This episode was edited by Johanna Zorn. Our sound designer is Emily Jankowski and our theme music is by Jon Batiste.
Sea Change is a WWNO and WRKF production. We are part of the NPR Podcast Network and distributed by PRX. To help others find our podcast, hit subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
Sea Change is made possible with major support from the Gulf Research Program of the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. WWNO’s Coastal Desk is supported by the Walton Family Foundation, the Meraux Foundation, and the Greater New Orleans Foundation.
Thanks for joining us, and we’ll be back in another two weeks.
